Like father, like son: Flávio Bolsonaro stuns the polls to top Brazil's first round

Brazil's presidential election is heading to a runoff after the son of a jailed former president humiliated the pollsters. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, of the Liberal Party led incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 47.45 per cent of valid votes to Lula's 44.66 per cent in Sunday's first round, with more than 97 per cent of votes counted, election authorities said. Neither crossed the 50 per cent threshold needed to avoid a second round on October 25. The next presidential term begins on January 5, 2027. The result was a shock. Pre-election surveys had shown Lula, 80, with a narrow lead and pointed to a likely runoff between the two men — but few expected the younger Bolsonaro to finish first, let alone by nearly three points. It is the latest in a long line of polling failures in Brazilian elections: surveys similarly underestimated Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022. Flávio Bolsonaro was a relatively obscure senator only months ago. His rise accelerated after his father anointed him as political heir — a role Jair Bolsonaro cannot fill himself. The former president is serving a 27-year prison sentence under house arrest after being convicted of plotting to overturn his 2022 defeat and prevent Lula from taking office. The first-round results also pointed to a broader rightward shift. The candidates who finished third, fourth and fifth were all right-wing, giving Bolsonaro a natural pool of voters to draw on in the runoff. The right also made significant gains in Congress, particularly in the Senate, which could hand Bolsonaro a stronger governing base if he wins. The campaign was dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of American meddling, yet offered meagre policy debate — both leading candidates skipped the major television debates. Around 160 million Brazilians were eligible to vote on Sunday. Lula, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, has pledged to continue broad social spending and to stand up to Washington's aggressive posture toward Latin America. Bolsonaro has spent the campaign cultivating ties with US President Donald Trump — the two met at the White House in May — and asked Washington to designate Brazil's largest criminal organisations as terrorist groups, a move Lula's camp denounced as foreign interference. For the region's largest democracy, October 25 will decide whether the Workers' Party's social project survives, or whether the Bolsonaro dynasty — founded by a man convicted of trying to steal an election — completes its return to power.